Your Boss Wants You Back in the Office. Your Boss's Landlord Needs It More.

Nobody's saying it out loud. So let's say it.

The return-to-office push isn't about collaboration, culture, or the magic that happens when you eat a sad cubicle salad next to your coworkers. It's about $1.5 trillion in commercial real estate debt that becomes worthless if nobody shows up to work in those buildings.

Follow the money. Always follow the money.

The Empty Buildings Nobody Wants to Talk About

When the pandemic hit, office occupancy collapsed. Office use plateaued at about half its pre-pandemic level - and it hasn't recovered. Building owners and the banks holding their loans are staring down a slow-motion crisis. The office sector endured the biggest losses in commercial real estate in 2023, and analysts projected more pain ahead.

There may be as much as 1 billion square feet of unused U.S. office space by the end of the decade - nearly 1.5 times the pre-pandemic vacancy level.

That is a catastrophic amount of empty square footage held by people with catastrophic amounts of money.

So what do you do when your asset class is dying? You call your friends in high places.

Hours after his inauguration, Trump signed an executive order requiring federal workers back to the office - a mandate that sent a clear signal that a real estate-focused administration was back in charge.

The messaging was immediate and obvious to anyone paying attention. Not subtle. Not even trying to be.

Meanwhile, corporate CEOs piled on. A KPMG survey of 1,300 CEOs found that 83% expect a return to five-day office weeks within three years. The boardrooms are aligned. Your commute is their balance sheet.

It's Not Even Working

Here's what makes it worse: it's not even working as advertised. While leasing data shows the number of leases signed in early 2024 was comparable to pre-pandemic levels, the average lease size has decreased by over 25%. Companies are signing leases, but for less space.

Because they know hybrid work is real, and it isn't going away. 32% of managers admit the desire to track employees was a main goal for their company's RTO mandate. 22% of HR professionals admit their organization has no metrics to measure what a successful return to office even looks like.

They can't define success. They just know they want you there.

42% of employees who returned to the office say they feel like they're just showing up for visibility. That checks out. Because that's exactly what it is. Despite tightening mandates, office attendance remains below pre-pandemic norms and hybrid work remains widespread.

Workers found out what a life without a two-hour daily commute felt like, and shockingly, most of them don't want to give it back.

The people pushing hardest for your return have one thing in common: they own the buildings you're supposed to fill.

Stay Frustrated.